Home Underdogs Bark loud again for us in Week 8 of college football!
Good Monday morning out there to all my “WINNERS”! Another successful weekend in college football as we go 7-2 this past weekend to help us get to 159 games over .500 since April 1st!!
The day started off right with Buffalo scoring 24 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to give us the outright win 34-27. I loved Buffalo getting the 7-8 points at home considering they play tough at home and Toledo was 1-6 ATS against the Bulls. Like I said the fact Buffalo is a different team at home was apparent to me even more in my detailed studying as the Home team in this series was 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
The Cowboys of Oklahoma State was another outright winner as a 7pt underdog at home against Texas. Oklahoma State was 4-0 at home and came into the contest averaging 49ppg at home. Texas was 5-2 coming into the contest but had only played one true road game in which they lost 37-34 to Texas Tech in Lubbock. Texas is a much different team at home than on the road and going to Oklahoma State in a crazy environment in Stillwater was to much for Texas as Oklahoma State gets us the cover.
We also cashed in with Louisiana Tech who led the whole game late but tried to give it away for us at the end, but they came in despite losing 42-41 in overtime. I loved this game because again Louisiana Tech is a hard place to play and who is Rice to be laying points on the road? Rice came in 0-3 SU on the road and only averaging 18 ppg on the road and defensively giving up 39ppg on the road. Louisiana Tech on the other hand was 2-0 at home and came in averaging 46 ppg at home.
Remember as I say I tend to lean more underdogs however not all underdogs are created equal you must remember that. Always remember the best scenario for Vegas is for the games to be 50% ratio with underdogs and favorites because they make enough off of the juice alone. In week 8 everyone loved Kansas +10 however you must remember Kansas had a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback in Jalon Daniels who is sidelined, they aren’t the same team. Pair that with going to Baylor who has owned them in a tough road game Baylor covers as the favorite. This was easy to pick out not to bet this underdog especially since 71% off all tickets were on Kansas.
The BIGGEST sucker bet of the college football slate this past Saturday was UCLA. We took Oregon -6 and faded most bettors. Everyone on the major sports networks were calling for the outright win for UCLA but the game was never in doubt for us winners as Oregon -6 covered easily. This was an easy one for me to pick out considering 75% of all money bet across sportsbooks was on UCLA and 73% of all tickets written on the game were on UCLA. Again not all dogs are created equal. Oregon was the easy play as they had won 23 straight at home and 32 out of the last 34 at home. UCLA came in 6-0 but they only had played one true road game. Oregon was also averaging 52 ppg at home. They weren’t able to get to that number but got us the easy cover with 45-30 win at Eugene.